Portfolio Management of High Growth Firms and Technical Buy Points

Abstract

This paper shows that current earnings and prices at or near new highs can be combined with the Average Directional Index (DM) technical indicator to generate excess return in the market. Excess returns are statistically significant via difference in means tests (robust to recession only periods, and additional timeframes) and CAPM, Fama and French 3 and 5 factor models. The model is robust to alternate weight specification and has consistent results across multiple start dates. The system is replicable and has a win rate of 63% turning $100,000 into $33,000,000. It is constructed without lookahead bias.