Forward - Looking Monetary Policy and the Contributions of Public Expectations

Abstract

Board of Governors staff present macroeconomic forecasts to FOMC members shortly before scheduled policy meetings, but only releases these forecasts to the public after five years. To examine if policy rate decisions depend solely on these forecasts, I analyze whether or not information similar to publicly available economic outlook affect policy decisions. Moreover, I use Semi-Automated Content Analysis on FOMC meeting statements to evaluate the type of forecasts reflected in these statements. I find that publicly available inflation projections and contemporaneous staff forecasts of unemployment best portray macroeconomic information that affects policy while FOMC statements are consistent with staff projections.