Disruptive Technology: Economic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence and the Robotics Revolution

Abstract

We examine the possible economic impact of lost wages and tax revenues that artificial intelligence and machine learning could have in the U.S. within the next couple of decades. Using a probability-weighted methodology, provide decile-grouped estimates for the possible monetary implications of significant job losses due to this disruptive technological revolution. Furthermore, we examine the implied tax revenue losses associated with the displacement of the employees in these occupations. Our results suggest that within a few decades the economic impact may very well be in the hundreds of billions in lost wages and hundreds of millions in lost tax revenue.